信息网络安全

信息网络安全 ›› 2019, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (4): 82-89.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-1122.2019.04.010

• 理论研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于大数据的前科人员犯罪预警模型构建研究

张蕾华1(), 牛红太2, 王仲妮2, 刘雪红2   

  1. 1.山西警察学院,山西太原 030401
    2.山西省公安厅,山西太原 030001
  • 收稿日期:2019-01-24 出版日期:2019-04-10 发布日期:2020-05-11
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介：张蕾华（1974—）,女,山西,副教授,硕士,主要研究方向为情报;牛红太（1973—）,男,山西,本科,主要研究方向为计算机科学;王仲妮（1983—）,女,山西,硕士,主要研究方向为大数据;刘雪红（1983—）,女,山西,硕士,主要研究方向为计算机科学。

  • 基金资助:
    公安部应用创新计划项目[2018YYCXSXST014];山西警察学院课题[2018yyb002];山西警察学院教改课题[yjy2018013]

Research on the Construction of Early Warning Model of Criminals Based on Big Data

Leihua ZHANG1(), Hongtai NIU2, Zhongni WANG2, Xuehong LIU2   

  1. 1.Shanxi Police College, Taiyuan Shanxi 030401, China
    2.Shanxi Provincial Public Security Department, Taiyuan Shanxi 030001, China
  • Received:2019-01-24 Online:2019-04-10 Published:2020-05-11

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摘要：

犯罪预警研究是大数据时代公安机关实施数据警务的有益探索,是数据挖掘技术和人工智能技术在公安领域的运用,对公安机关实现犯罪的前馈控制具有重要意义。基于现有的犯罪数据,通过人工智能分析平台构建前科人员再次犯罪预测模型,从而提高犯罪预测的准确性,并且可以为事先防控犯罪提供科学的参考依据。搜集前科人员基本属性信息、劣迹信息、活动轨迹等数据,通过数据清洗、特征构造、模型建立、模型评估与优化,构建科学合理的感知预警分析模型,选取随机森林算法作为模型的训练算法,其正样本的精确率为0.85、召回率为0.86。研究表明,犯罪数据不仅可以用来预防犯罪,而且能够帮助我们从一个更高的层面理解犯罪发生的原因。

关键词: 前科人员, 犯罪预测, 数据挖掘, 随机森林

Abstract:

Based on the existing crime data, the artificial crime and machine learning are used to construct the re-criminal prediction model of the criminals, so as to improve the accuracy of crime prediction and provide a scientific reference for the prevention and control of crimes. Collect basic attribute information, inferior information, activity trajectory and other data of the former staff, and construct a scientific and reasonable perceptual early warning analysis model through data cleaning, feature structure, model establishment, model evaluation and optimization,and select the random forest algorithm as the model training algorithm. The positive sample has an accuracy of 0.85 and a recall rate of 0.86. Crime early warning research is a useful exploration of the implementation of data policing by public security organs in the era of big data. It is the application of data mining and artificial intelligence technology in the field of public security, which is of great significance to the public security organs to implement the feed control of crime. Research shows that crime data can be used to prevent crime, and it can help us understand the causes of crime from a higher perspective.

Key words: criminals, crime prediction, data mining, random forest

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