关键词: 风险评估, 电力系统, 层次分析法, 模糊数学, AF-RA

Abstract:

This paper is dedicated to design a brand new information security risk assessment model, aka AF-RA model, based on AHP analysis algorithm utilized in risk assessment system and methods from fussy mathematics under the specific application condition of electricity power system, to address the problems of relatively low accuracy, low efficiency and inadequate optimization of information risk assessment mechanism in classical electricity power system. This model will be explained and analyzed in depth in this paper. In this model, the probability of the system vulnerabilities being exploited is estimated through a hierarchical structure of vulnerabilities assessment subsystem, and then a threatening level mark is given from the expertise. The security value of primal points is calculated according to risk level of the asset, threatening and vulnerability and the overall risk of the subject under assessment can be concluded based on this calculation result and synthesized risk parameters. At the output side of this model, security measures to eliminate the vulnerability of correlated systems can be arranged according to the security risk level concluded and the measures is prioritized by the significance of the total data information and core asset security, in accordance of the specific characteristics of electricity power system security.

Key words: risk assessment, power system, AHP, fuzzy math, AF-RA